The Iowa Electronic Markets are a real-money trading system that is used to attempt to predict political outcomes. Right now, a \\(1.00 pay-off on the Presidency will cost \\).58 for Bush. In other words, Bush is favored. There's a strong case to be made that “real money” is a vastly better predictor of the future than polls, but I watched the IEM during the Democratic primaries and Dean, whose “lead” proved absolutely illusory, consistently led in the IEM.
So I'm pretty dubious. I think it'll come right down to the wire and then (got my fingers crossed) the undecideds and un-pollable kids will break strong for Kerry. God, I hope so. I was going to write a polemic about why I like Kerry or, more specifically, why I think that Bush and Co. are cynical betrayers of everything that America stands for, but I was stymied by the idea that this election is going to be based on people who are undecided. I can't for the life of me understand being undecided -- I can understand being a Republican (especially when the alternative is being a Democrat), I can understand valuing conservative principles over liberal ones, I can even understand (barely) interpreting Bush's behavior as “steadfast” and principled.
I can argue respectfully with conservatives. But I just can't for the life of me figure out what to say to someone who's undecided.